Grand National Tips 06-04-2013

Paul Ferguson goes through the candidates for saturday’s Grand National and presents his early verdict. Compare odds and bet.

IMPERIAL COMMANDER 12 11-10 158

2010 Gold Cup winner
Fine comeback against Cape Tribulation (5^th in Gold Cup)
Down 2 stone OR was 185 at peak and appeals as type to take to fences

WHAT A FRIEND 10 11-9 157

Quirky and not won a race since the 2010 Grand National meeting
Pulled-up in the 2011 National and shown little since

WEIRD AL 10 11-8 156

Another quirky individual, who has failed to complete on four of his last five
Hard to fancy on the evidence we have of late and, even when in better form, his form tended to be better in the first half of the season (5 of his 6 career wins between October and December).

PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE 10 11-7 155

Sadly ruled out injured again

QUEL ESPRIT 9 11-7 155

Potentially reasonably treated off 155 on best of his old form
Had jumping issues early days but Grade 1 winner
Belated return to action when 4/4 in Irish Hennessy (needed it)
Capable of going well at a price if getting into a rhythm early

BIG FELLA THANKS 11 11-6 154

6^th in 2009, 4^th in 2010 and 7^th in 2011, he clearly relishes the National course and he also finished third to Hello Bud in the Becher Chase in December
Won at Wincanton in January and ran well behind Pacha Du Polder
Entered in Topham but this the aim unless its really soft; doubtful stayer

ROBERTO GOLDBACK 11 11-6 154

Disappointing since winning on debut for Henderson at Ascot in November
Likes decent ground and races as though an extreme test of stamina will suit
Only won 4 times from 27 starts over fences, despite being classy on his day

SEABASS 10 11-6 154

5lbs higher than when 3^rd last year
2^nd over hurdles and 3^rd to Roi Du Mee and PDB in Bobbyjo (staying on)
Must for any shortlist if ridden more aggressively up the inner
Testing ground would probably aid his chances further

BALLABRIGGS 12 11-4 152

2011 winner (off 150) and 6^th last year (160)
Shaped well at Kelso last time in race he used as a prep last 2 years
Capable of going well but not getting any younger

SUNNYHILLBOY 10 11-0 152

Up 10lbs since runner-up in last year’s race (5l ahead of Seabass)
Ran well in 5^th behind Trustan Times then pulled up at Warwick
Missed Gold Cup (dirty scope allowing AP to ride Sir Des Champs)

TEAFORTHREE 9 11-3 151

Won 4m NH Chase at last year’s Festival
Runner-up (144) in the Welsh National
Didn’t handle track (reportedly) when only 10^th at Haydock
Front-runner who should attack these fences; goes on any ground

ACROSS THE BAY 9 11-2 150

Won Rendlesham Hurdle last time and relishes heavy ground
Won twice over fences earlier in season (beat Cappa Bleu 28l)
7^th in Welsh National and doesn’t jump fluently enough for me

JOIN TOGETHER 8 11-2 150

Useful novice last term (beat Teaforthree at Cheltenham in November 2011)
Runner-up on debut over these fences in the Becher in December (148)
PU in Grimthorpe after early error; run best ignored
Better ground will help and runs as though marathon trip will suit

BOB LINGO 11 11-1 149

Won twice last summer but disappointing since
Yet to win beyond 2m6f and serious stamina doubts

COLBERT STATION 9 11-1 149

Won Paddy Power Chase and followed up over hurdles
17lbs higher than PP win and would seem to relish soft ground
Clearly on the upgrade but form needs to take a step forward

TOFINO BAY 10 11-1 149

Runner-up in NH Chase but unlikely runner by all accounts

FORPADYDEPLASTERER 11 11-0 148

4 years since he won the Arkle and doubtful stayer over this trip

ON HIS OWN 9 11-0 148

Still unexposed over fences after just 7 chase starts (won 3 times)
Off same mark as when falling at Bechers (2^nd time) last year going well
Warmed up by beating Si C’Etait Vrai in Boyne Hurdle at Navan
Won Thyestes (125) last Jan and at Ayr in April 2011 (116)

JONCOL 10 10-13 147

Rapidly dropped in ratings but not won since November 2011
Kept on past Quel Esprit to take 3^rd in Irish Hennessy
Had earlier ran reasonably well behind Rule The World (nov hdl)
3 years since he won the Irish Hennessy

LION NA BEARNAI 11 10-13 147

Won Irish National (135) but doubtful runner

BALTHAZAR KING 9 10-12 146

Not seen since Nov due to ground and missed Cross Country (won last year)
Relishes decent ground or better and a marathon trip (7 / 16 over fences)
Could go well if the ground dried out

BOSTONS ANGEL 9 10-11 145

Only won once since winning RSA Chase 2 years ago
4^th in Cross Country Chase last time

CAPPA BLEU 11 10-11 145

4^th last year and 2lb lower this time
Won 2009 and Foxhunters and only won once since
Peaking nicely after 2^nd to Vino Griego (run well since)
Evan Williams knows how to ready one with State Of Play the example

OSCAR TIME 12 10-11 145

Runner-up to Ballbriggs 2 years ago off this mark
Disappointing of late, especially the last twice (last of 17 last time)

ALWAYS WAINING 12 10-10 144

Winner of the Topham for the past 3 seasons (128 / 133 / 138)
Clearly loves the track and these fences but serious stamina doubt for me

QUINZ 9 10-10 144

Pulled-up in 2011 National after winning the Racing Post Chase
4^th in that contest last month and chances of going well if drying ground

TATENEN 9 10-10 144

Unseated early in last year’s race and not shown much since
Did stay on to take 6^th behind Alderwood in the Grand Annual last time
One time classy sort but hard to fancy these days (best at Ascot)

BESHABAR 11 10-9 143

Non-Runner

TREACLE 12 10-9 143

Fell at the 10^th last year
Stayed on to win 3m2f heavy ground chase at Down Royal last time
Thorough stayer who would want really testing ground to aid his chance

LOST GLORY 8 10-8 142

Progressive youngster winning 4 of last 5 and is 5 from 9 over fences
Stayed on well the last twice (Stratford off 127 and Chepstow off 135)
175 day lay-off as doesn’t want soft ground; need the ground to dry out

SAINT ARE 7 10-8 142

Dual winner at this meeting (G1 Sefton and 3m1f h’cap chase last year)
Chased home Champion Court in a novice chase on only other Mildmay run
Shaped well behind Vino Griego & Cappa Bleu at Ascot
Midfield Kim Muir last time
Could go well but needs to brush up his jumping; prefers good ground

SWING BILL 12 10-8 142

10^th last year and 4^th in the Becher (also 5^th in 2011 Topham)
Not getting any younger and hard to fancy

WYCK HILL 9 10-8 142

Non-Runner

CHICAGO GREY 10 10-7 141

Won 2011 4m NH Chase at Cheltenham Festival beating Beshabar
Won for first time since last time (2m4f heavy ground at Navan)
Ideally prefers better ground and brought down early last year
Not always a fluent jumper, which is off-putting

MAGNANIMITY 9 10-7 141

Not won since Jan 2011 and only 2 from 16 over fences in all
Shaped reasonably well in defeat a couple of times this season
Never won beyond 2m5f under rules (has also won a point)

QUISCOVER FONTAINE 9 10-3 141

Fell 17^th last year and another doubtful stayer
Decent form over shorter over the years but yet to win beyond 2m4f
Did finish 4^th in Irish National in 2011

BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE 10 10-6 140

Fell early on in each of the past two renewals
Ran much better than of late in the Kim Muir last time (tired into 5^th)

HARRY THE VIKING 8 10-6 140

Runner-up to Teaforthree in last year’s NH Chase at Cheltenham
Not shown too much since and midfield in Hennessy & Kim Muir

RARE BOB 11 10-6 140

Completed the course in 2011 Becher and BD early on in last year’s race
Doesn’t win often (4 / 28 over fences) and others preferred

THE RAINBOW HUNTER 9 10-6 140

4^th at Ascot in Feb behind Vino Griego, Cappa Bleu and Saint Are
Earlier won there in Nov and Southwell in May
Needs to take a big step forward on what he has shown to date

MR MOONSHINE 9 10-5 139

Bits and pieces of form including 2^nd to Cape T in Rowland Meyrick
Not won since November 2011 but goes on any ground
Would appeal more in the Topham

MUMBLES HEAD 12 10-4 138

Rolled back the years to win twice in May & June last year
Faller at the 1^st in Becher in December and hard to fancy

PEARLYSTEPS 10 10-4 138

Just 1 from 11 over fences with that win coming at Hereford in Jan 2011
Not shown too much when 4^th at Exeter and Ludlow this season

AURORAS ENCORE 11 10-3 137

50/1 winner at this meeting over hurdles in 2008
Just 5 wins from 23 chase starts and not shown great deal this season
Did finish head 2^nd to Merigo in Scottish National last year

NINETIETH MINUTE 10 10-3 137

Coral Cup winner back in 2009 and only won once since
Runner-up to Treacle last time and best form over shorter

TARQUINIUS 10 10-2 136

Looked useful when winning on New Year’s Day but only off 113
Runner-up on penultimate start but a lot more needed in this company

ANY CURRENCY 10 10-0 134

Only 9^th in the cross country race last time and not the quickest of stayers
Did win at Wincanton earlier in the season over 3m3f but fell in Becher

MAJOR MALARKEY 10 9-13 133

5^th in that Vino Griego Ascot race
PU Midlands National last time (after 1^st) as if something were wrong

POKER DE SIVOLA 10 9-13 133

Winner of the 2010 NH Chase and also the Bet365 Gold Cup in 2011
7^th in the Becher when last seen
Could outrun his odds if ground dried out; prefers good

BACKSTAGE 11 9-12 132

Multiple point to point winner who was tailed off in Foxhunter recently
UR at 20^th in 2010 and finished 8^th in Fox Hunters here in 2009

SOLL 8 9-12 132

P-T-P winner who won over hurdles for John Quinn
Won beginners’ chase for Willie Mullins before BD in NH Chase
Sent off just 8/1 that day in the race won by Teaforthree
Midfield in Hennessy and Welsh National; won at Sandown recently
Looks in need of a marathon trip and could go well if sneaking in

ROMANESCO 8 9-11 131

Runner-up to Colbert Station and third in Kim Muir last time
Entered in the Irish National (Monday) and the Topham

VIKING BLOND 8 9-11 131

Fell at 1^st last year
Placed this year behind Monbeg Dude (Cheltenham) and On Trend (Sandown)
5^th in Haydock Trial last time

CLOUDY LANE 13 9-10 130

Much more likely to run in the Fox Hunters’ on Thursday

PENTIFFIC 10 9-8 128

Not in same form as last season despite winning at Musselburgh in Jan
Unlikely to get in and Aidan Coleman booked to ride The Rainbow Hunter

GULLIBLE GORDON 10 9-6 126

6^th in Becher on penultimate start but unlikely to get a run

MORTIMERS CROSS 12 9-6 126

Won at Kelso in December but well beaten the last twice
Unlikely to get in

VERDICT:

Like fellow columnist Charlie (McCann) I’m a big fan of On His Own but quite whether he deserves to be as short as 7/1 is another matter. If you’re not on already at bigger odds, you may want to look elsewhere for a bit of value in a race so competitive.

Last year’s placed horses Sunnyhillboy, Seabass and Cappa Bleu all have to be greatly respected, while of the remainder Teaforthree looks capable of a bold show and is the pick of those without experience of the fences for me. Finally, Imperial Commander is handicapped to go well despite being burdened with top-weight.

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Last Year’s Book Results – Leading Prospects:

SPRINTER SACRE – Unbeaten – winner at Aintree & Cheltenham
SIMONSIG – Winner at Aintree & Cheltenham
CINDERS AND ASHES – 10/1 winner of Supreme Novices Hurdle
BOBS WORTH – 9/2 winner of the RSA Chase
MENORAH & SILVINIACO CONTI – Both Aintree Winners
SIR DES CHAMPS – Unbeaten inc 3/1 Jewson Cheltenham Winner
FINGAL BAY – Won 4 times inc Challow Hurdle
RAYA STAR – 10/3 winner at Wetherby, 12/1 Ladbroke Hurdle winner, 15/2 Scottish Champion Hurdle winner
AMBION WOOD – 14/1 EBF Final Sandown winner
CHAMPION COURT – 6/1 G2 Dipper Novices Chase winner
PALACE JESTER – 14/1 winner at FFos Las
SWINCOMBE FLAME – Hat-trick winner inc Lanzarote Hurdle at 9/2
TEAFOR THREE – 5/1 NH Cheltenham Chase winner (Manifesto Novices’ Chase)