Fergie’s Born Survivor @ 9/4

Paul Ferguson has one selection for us on Saturday; Born Survivor in the Warwick 15:00. Compare odds and bet.

A fairly quiet day for a Saturday from a punting perspective, though there are several interesting novices on show across the three National Hunt cards.

Nicky Henderson sends L’Ami Serge up to Wetherby for the novices’ chase, where he steps up in trip for the first time.  A potential contender for either the Arkle or the JLT at Cheltenham, the son of King’s Theatre jumped well when making a winning debut over fences at Plumpton just 13 days ago and the testing ground shouldn’t be an inconvenience.

Over at Naas, Willie Mullins saddles both Roi Des Francs and Pont Alexandre in the Grade 2 3m Woodlands Park 100 Novice Chase and, again, this could provide further clues as to possible festival targets.  The latter was hugely impressive when winning on debut at Punchestown, which followed a break of two years and nine months, and it is hoped he backs it up here.

Mullins sends three horses over to Warwick this afternoon, with Black Hercules a warm order to land the Listed 3m novices’ chase.  This could prove more competitive than the market suggests, however, with Definitly Red and Silsol likely to relish conditions, while the mare Emily Gray ran a blinder at Doncaster last time.  This looks a cracking contest and one to monitor closely.

The all-conquering Irish trainer sends over both Open Eagle and Thomas Hobson for the Leamington Novices’ Hurdle, but Dan Skelton’s Born Survivor (3:00) looked an exciting prospect when scoring over course-and-distance and is the day’s sole bet.

The form of the Skelton yard remains a slight concern, but he did saddle a winner during the week (and only had two runners in the past fortnight after a few high-profile reversals) and this hugely impressive Irish point-to-point winner has been trained with this race in mind for some time.

The King’s Theatre gelding moved stylishly before seeing off Minella Charmer (easy winner since) by 2 lengths and, despite looking pretty green in the closing stages, he readily drew away in the closing stages and will hopefully handle the testing conditions – it was soft here last time.

Born Survivor was trading at 5-2 (Bet365) overnight and he can provide his connections with a second successive win in this race, following the victory of Three Musketeers 12 months ago.

Of the opposition, the Rebecca Curtis-trained Definite Outcome is a big imposing seven-year-old who should appreciate the step up in trip and won’t mind the ground.  He looks a staying chaser in the making and should go well at a double-figure price; he was available at 12-1 overnight, with Bet365 paying ¼ odds to 3 places.

Saturday’s selection:

3:00 Warwick            Born Survivor 9/4 Bet365

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