Former Talksport man Charlie McCann marks your card with four to follow on Saturday at Ascot and Newmarket plus a look ahead to Sunday’s racing. View selections below
The first weekend in October can only mean one thing; Longchamp is likely to be bathed in warm autumn sunshine as the 5-y-o French mare Treve stands on the brink of racing immortality as she chases an unprecedented third Arc de Triomphe in Paris on Sunday.
She obviously has every chance of becoming the first horse in the rich history of the race (first run in 1920) to win the race on three occasions but at 10/11 in an 18-runner race with BetVictor she looks plenty short enough given I think it is a strong renewal of the great race.
French Derby winner New Bay (2.55 ew) is trained by Andre Fabre and the impressive French Derby winner showed Sunday’s 12f trip holds no terrors when easily disposing of his field in the Gp 2 Niel on Trials day. His winning time was slower than that of Treve but he receives 5lbs from the super mare and I would be surprised and disappointed if he were out of the places.
The selection has a cracking draw in stall five and at 4/1 with BetVictor I think he has an outstanding each way chance. This is likely to be the fastest ground New Bay has encountered and, as a son of Dubawi, there is a slight concern that he won’t let himself down on the ground, but he oozed class in his trial and looks to have had the ideal preparation for the race.
The race revolves around Treve; we have waited the best part of a century for a horse to win the end-of-season showpiece three times. History could be made and it would be great for the sport if she did; the heart says Treve but the head says New Bay cannot be out of the first three.
In the Marcel Boussac which opens the card the drying ground will suit Ballydoyle (1.00) who is reunited with Ryan Moore for the first time since Royal Ascot; the filly was just touched off at the Curragh last time in the Moyglare Stud Stakes when asked to make the running and she is likely to be ridden with more restraint stepped up to a mile for the first time.
Today’s Cumberland Lodge Stakes at Ascot sees seven largely exposed older horses tackled by one younger progressive type in Star Storm (2.35) although it, must be acknowledged, that this is a big step up in grade. The selection ran all over his field at Yarmouth last time and at 6/1 with BetVictor he is another who should make the frame.
At Newmarket Twin Sails (1.45) came up short at Doncaster in a sales race last run but ran a cracker in the circumstances given trainer Dean Ivory reported he had missed some work in the run up to the race due to illness. He sets a high standard and if improved for that last effort will be hard to beat.
Aidan O’Brien brings over Waterloo Bridge (2.50) for the juvenile sales’ race and the colt can take the step up to 7f in his stride. We haven’t seen the juvenile since Royal Ascot when he won the Norfolk Stakes over the minimum trip but on breeding this 7f really should see him in an even better light.
Integral is looking for back-to-back wins in the Gp 1 Sun Chariot Stakes but preference is for French raider Esoterique (3.30) who finished fourth in this corresponding event last year when given too much to do in a slowly run race.
At Huntingdon I am going to give King’s Legacy (2.25) one last chance over what I perceive as his optimum trip of 2m 4f going right-handed on decent ground; he is sure to have the race run to suit given there is plenty of pace in the race and if the eight stand their ground he can warrant each way support.
Yabadabadoo will be popular for Fred and Barney but the Lavelle horses are still not firing on all cylinders and preference is for Le Fin Bois (3.35) on his chase debut for Tim Vaughan. The 5-year-old took time to acclimatise since coming over from France but he hinted at ability on more than one occasion and might be up to defying top weight.
There is a valuable Beginners Chase at Uttoxeter and the 4-y-old Souriyan will have his supporters given his 11lbs weight-for-age allowance but I hope connections feel there is enough ease in the ground for Kylemore Lough (3.25) to take his chance for Kerry Lee. The 6-y-old was rated inferior to a couple of today’s opponents over timber but he always struck me as the type he would improve when sent chasing.
At Tipperary I was initially disappointed with the performance of Dawenkour (2.00) behind Johannes Vermeer at Killarney back in August but the winner has subsequently franked the form and won a Gp 3 at Leopardstown and he can break his maiden at the third time of asking. Ballydoyle’s Cole Porter looks a real stayer and this 9f should suit but the nod goes to Dawenkour.
Tony Martin saddles both Ted Veale and Thomas Edison (3.45) and preference for the latter is marginal; both have been fine servants over both codes and it wouldn’t surprise if we saw both at Newmarket later in the month for the Cesarewitch.
Bachasson is a leading fancy for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at next year’s Cheltenham Festival and Willie Mullins’ four-year-old is chasing a quick four-timer over jumps. Bryan Cooper has chosen Rule The World over Monday’s impressive Roscommon winner The Game Changer but I am going to side with Viconte Du Noyer (5.15) who jumped superbly when winning at Killarney last time and can make all in a great race for the time of year.
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Be lucky
Charlie
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