Racing Guru and authour of Racing Trends Revealed, David Myers shares the ‘killer-stats & trends’ punters need to go to war with at Cheltenham over the four days of the Festival
One of the best ways of finding winners at Cheltenham is to look back at past Festivals to unearth any key trends, highlighting what previous winners had on their CV prior to the race.
With the Cheltenham Festival fast approaching, now is an ideal time to get some studying done and take advantage of the early value in the ante-post markets.
Listed below are all the ‘killer-stats & trends’ punters need to go to war with at Cheltenham over the four days of the Festival, courtesy of David Myers’ Racing Trends Revealed – the No.1 website for racing trends. www.racingtrendsrevealed.co.uk
Tuesday March 15 2011
Supreme Novices Hurdle 13:30
All 13 victors won at least 50% of their career hurdle races.
12 raced over hurdles between two and four times.
12 were ridden prominently or held up.
11 won last time.
11 ran during the last two months.
11 returned 14/1 or shorter.
10 were five or six-year-olds.
8 of the last 12 renewals went to the Irish – Noel Meade struck twice.
Those that raced on the Flat are respected as seven winners emerged from that sphere – none of whom tasted Graded class. Three mares were successful.
The Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase 14:05
All 13 winners ran in a novice chase last time.
All 13 raced during the last three months.
All 13 won a novice or beginners’ chase over 2m-2m1f.
All 13 had a maximum of five chase runs.
All 13 returned 11/1 or shorter.
12 were ridden prominently or held up.
11 were five to seven-year-olds.
Alan King and Paul Nicholls trained two winners apiece.
Mares struggled, with the last successful female back in 1980.
Festival Handicap Chase 14:40
All 13 winners were officially rated 127-145.
12 won over 3m or further.
12 carried 11st2lb or lower.
12 were seven to 10-years-olds – other ages provided just one winner from just over 50 losers.
12 were ridden prominently or held up.
11 had been off the track for a month or more.
11 raced in a handicap chase last time.
10 won a class 3 or better handicap chase.
10 returned 20/1 or shorter – 8 of the last 10 were 5/1 to 8/1.
The Stan James Champion Hurdle 15:20
All 13 winners raced during the previous two months.
All 13 made the top three last time.
12 had a minimum of 10 hurdle outings.
12 won a Grade 1 hurdle or Grade 3 handicap hurdle.
11 won over 2m-2m1f last time.
11 arrived via Ireland, Sandown or Wincanton.
11 were six to eight-year-olds.
11 were ridden prominently or held up.
9 won at the Cheltenham Festival.
Wednesday March 16 2011
Neptune Investment Novices’ Hurdle 14:05
All 13 winners raced during the past two months.
All 13 made the top three last time.
12 won during their last two races.
12 returned 12/1 or shorter.
11 won over 2m4f or further, including in point-to-points.
11 had a maximum of five hurdle outings.
11 made the frame in a Graded event – nine won.
11 were five or six-year-olds. The other ages scored just twice from 55
runners. Willie Mullins trained two recent winners.
Royal & Sun Alliance Chase 14:40
All 13 winners ran during the past two months.
All 13 were five to eight-year-olds.
12 made the top two last time.
12 won earlier in the season.
12 had two to five chase runs.
12 were ridden prominently or held up.
Willie Mullins trained his third winner last season, while Paul Nicholls sent
out two. No mare managed to win – Pomme Tiepy fell at 9/2 in 2008.
The Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase 15:20
All 13 winners scored over 2m or further – 10 took a Graded chase last time.
12 won at Cheltenham.
12 had a minimum of eight chase outings.
12 returned 10/1 or shorter.
12 ran during the last two months.
11 arrived via Ireland, Kempton, Sandown or Newbury (Game Spirit
Chase). Six winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown in December, while Arkle winners from 12 months earlier should be respected.
10 were five to nine-year-olds.
10 won last time out.
Paul Nicholls trained four winners.
The Coral Cup 16:00
All 13 winners were ridden prominently or help up.
12 won a 2m2f-2m6f hurdle.
12 were officially rated 128-144.
12 carried 11st3lb or less.
11 made the top six last time.
10 were six to eight-year-olds.
10 were rested for around two to four months – the two exceptions both won during the last three weeks.
Philip Hobbs trained two winners, while raiders from across the Irish Sea are respected.
The Champion Bumper 17:15
All 13 winners won a bumper with 13 runners or more – seven won in 20-runner plus fields.
All 13 had a maximum of four bumper runs.
All 13 were ridden prominently or held up.
12 were five or six-year-olds – four-year-olds provided one winner from just under 50 losers.
11 were Irish-bred.
11 won last time.
10 were Irish-trained – Willie Mullins was responsible for five.
10 returned 14/1 or shorter.
Thursday March 17 2011
Ladbrokes World Hurdle 15:20
All 13 winners raced during the last three months, although none raced
within the past three weeks. Six arrived via the Rendlesham or Cleeve Hurdle.
All 13 were British or French-trained.
All 13 were ridden prominently or held up.
12 made the top three last time.
12 raced a maximum of four times that season.
12 were six to eight-year-olds. In 2008, Inglis Drever joined Galmoy (1988) and Crimson Embers (1996) in being the only winners aged nine or older, and all three were previous World Hurdle winners. The only other victor aged nine during the last 35 years was Gaye Chance (1984).
11 never finished out of the top four all season.
11 raced at the Cheltenham Festival. Mares remain winless from 10
runners.
Byrne Plate Handicap Chase 16:00
All 13 winners raced during the past two months in a chase.
All 13 won a class 3 or better event.
All 13 were ridden prominently or held up.
12 won over 2m3f-2m5f.
12 carried 11st3lb or lighter.
12 made the top five last time out – eight of the last 10 had no more than four seasonal runs.
11 had Cheltenham Festival experience.
Nicky Henderson and Miss Venetia Williams won four of the last six
renewals.
Friday March 17 2011
The JCB Triumph Hurdle 13:30
All 13 winners raced during the past two months – eight came via Kempton or Sandown. Both Irish winners took a domestic route.
All 13 were unraced in handicap class.
All 13 made the top two last time – Scolardy was disqualified into second.
All 13 returned 20/1 or shorter.
12 won at least 50% of their hurdle outings.
12 had two to six outings over timber.
9 had Flat form.
Snow Drop was the only winning filly from around 25 females.
Trainers Nicky Henderson, Alan King and Philip Hobbs won this six times
between them in the last seven years.
Vincent O’Brien Country Handicap Hurdle 14:05
All 13 winners raced during the last two months. Six arrived via Newbury, including four from the Totesport Gold Trophy that has been a good long-term trial.
All 13 made the top three during their last three outings.
12 had a maximum of 16 hurdle runs.
12 were officially rated 128-145.
12 returned 20/1 or shorter, counting against 34 runners in the last two
years.
12 were ridden prominently or held up.
11 won over 2m.
Trainer Paul Nicholls triumphed three from 16 runners.
The Cheltenham Gold Cup 15:20
All 13 winners were rested for two to three months.
All 13 raced two to five times that season.
12 arrived via Cheltenham, Kempton, Leopardstown or Newbury – the
King George VI, Letheby & Christopher (Pillar Property), Lexus and Aon Chases all good pointers.
12 had six to 13 chase outings.
12 were seven to nine-year-olds.
11 won during their last three runs.
11 made the top two at the Cheltenham Festival – Denman emulated Looks Like Trouble and Garrison Savannah in following up Royal & SunAlliance wins.
11 won a Grade 1 chase.
11 won over 3m or further, including in points-to-points. 9 since 1999 were officially rated 166 or higher.
Paul Nicholls (4) and Noel Chance (2) shared six winners.
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase 17:15
All 13 winners returned 20/1 or shorter.
12 winners scored over 2m.
12 raced during the past two months.
12 made the top six last time.
12 were officially rated 129-145.
12 made the top three that season.
12 had a maximum of 12 chase runs.
11 had a maximum of five outings that season.
10 carried 10st11lb or less.
Paul Nicholls and Arthur Moore trained two winners apiece.
Source: www.racingtrendsrevealed.co.uk
